Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Jan 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1149 (N16W90)
produced two C1 flares at 27/1201Z and 27/2003Z. A Type II radio
sweep was observed at 27/1208Z, with an estimated velocity of 901
km/s.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels on day one (28 January). There remains a
slight chance for a C-class flare as Region 1149 rotates off the
limb. Activity is expected to be very low on days two and three
(29-30 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels, with isolated unsettled
periods at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(28-30 January).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jan 081
Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 079/078/078
90 Day Mean 27 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales