US Beige Book, Economic Activity “Continued to Expand Moderately”
from November to December
Location: Toronto
Author:
RBC Financial Group Economics Department
Date: Thursday, January 13, 2011
The Fed’s Summary of Commentary on
Current Economic Conditions, the so called ‘Beige Book’, compiled
using data collected on or before January 3, 2011 in preparation for the
January 26 FOMC meeting, characterized U.S. economic activity as
continuing to “expand moderately” during the reporting period. Overall
conditions and activity were noted to have improved by some degree in
all 12 districts, a step up from the last report in which two Districts
cited “mixed” business conditions.
- Consumer spending “showed improvement” across all Districts,
with retailers indicating that sales were above the levels seen last
holiday season and, in some cases, better than expectations.
- Manufacturing activity “continued to recover” across all
Districts, with several reporting a notable pick up in new orders;
overall, demand was characterized as “stable and steady”. In stark
contrast to the reports in the summer, no Districts made mention of
lingering fears of a double-dip recession.
- Activity within housing markets “remained slow” across all
Districts, with a majority characterizing local markets as “weak and
sluggish” with no changes from the previous reporting period. All
Districts cited concerns regarding the pace of economic recovery,
particularly in employment, as a cause for the slumping activity.
The commercial real estate sector was once again described as
“mixed” because leasing activity showed increasing signs of
recovery, but construction activity remained “weak”.
- Lending activity was “mixed” across Fed Districts, with some
stating that overall loan demand was “slowly improving” while others
noted it was “weaker” or “slightly softer”. Most Districts reported
that credit quality was “improving”.
- The report noted that labor markets in most Districts “appear to
be firming somewhat”, but that there was “virtually no upward
pressure on wages”. All Districts reported that employment levels
were rising, but “generally by modest amounts”.
- Most Districts indicated that firms were facing increasing cost
pressures; however, there was “only modest pass-through into final
prices because of competitive pressures”. In general, any increases
in selling prices were being done on a selective basis.
Today’s Beige Book provides a slightly more upbeat characterization
of the U.S. economy, with businesses indicating that they are cautiously
optimistic about the near-term outlook. Unfortunately, however, today’s
report indicates that while labour markets are improving, these job
gains are generally modest, and prices pressures continue to remain
subdued, areas in which the Fed has repeatedly noted that progress of
improvement has been “disappointingly slow”. Against this backdrop, we
expect that the Fed will not make any changes to its highly
accommodative monetary policy stance at its upcoming meeting.
Information contained in this report has been
prepared by the Economics Department of RBC Financial Group based on
information obtained from sources considered to be reliable. While every
effort has been made to ensure accuracy and completeness, RBC Financial
Group makes no such representation or warranty, express or implied.
This report is for information purposes only and does not constitute an
offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities.
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