Social Security's finances are getting worse as the economy
struggles to recover and millions of baby boomers stand at the
brink of retirement.
New congressional projections show Social Security running
deficits every year until its trust funds are eventually drained
in about 2037.
This year alone, Social Security is projected to collect $45
billion less in payroll taxes than it pays out in retirement,
disability and survivor benefits, the nonpartisan Congressional
Budget Office said Wednesday. That figure swells to $130 billion
when a new one-year cut in payroll taxes is included, though
Congress has promised to repay any lost revenue from the tax
cut.
The massive retirement program has been feeling the effects of a
struggling economy for several years. The program first went
into deficit last year, but the CBO said at the time that Social
Security would post surpluses for a few more years before
permanently slipping into deficits in 2016.
The outlook, however, has grown bleaker as the nation struggles
to recover from the worst economic crisis since Social Security
was enacted during the Great Depression. In the short term,
Social Security is suffering from a weak economy that has
payroll taxes lagging and applications for benefits rising. In
the long term, Social Security will be strained by the growing
number of baby boomers retiring and applying for benefits.
The deficits add a sense of urgency to efforts to improve Social
Security's finances. For much of the past 30 years, Social
Security has run big surpluses, which the government has
borrowed to spend on other programs. Now that Social Security is
running deficits, the federal government will have to find money
elsewhere to help pay for retirement, disability and survivor
benefits.
"It means that Social Security is increasingly adding to our
long-term fiscal problem, and it's happening now," said Eugene
Steuerle, a former Treasury official who is now a fellow at the
Urban Institute think tank.
It's a bad time for the nation to be hit with more financial
problems. The federal budget deficit will surge to a record $1.5
trillion flood of red ink this year, congressional budget
experts estimated Wednesday, blaming the slow economic recovery
and a tax cut law enacted in December.
A debt commission appointed by President Barack Obama has
recommended a series of changes to improve Social Security's
finances, including a gradual increase in the full retirement
age, lower cost-of-living increases and a gradual increase in
the threshold on the amount of income subject to the Social
Security payroll tax.
Obama, however, has not embraced any of the panel's
recommendations. Instead, in his State of the Union speech this
week, he called for unspecified bipartisan solutions to
strengthen the program while protecting current retirees, future
retirees and people with disabilities.
Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said he is
ready to work with Obama on Social Security and other tough
issues.
"I take the president at his word when he says he's eager to
cooperate with us on doing all of it," McConnell said.
Social Security experts say news of permanent deficits should be
a wake-up call for action.
"So long as Social Security was running surpluses, policymakers
could put off the need to fix the program," said Andrew Biggs, a
former deputy commissioner at the Social Security Administration
who is now a resident scholar at the American Enterprise
Institute. "Now that the system is running deficits, it simply
becomes clear that we need to act on Social Security reform."
More than 54 million people receive retirement, disability or
survivor benefits from Social Security. Monthly payments average
$1,076.
The program has been supported by a 6.2 percent payroll tax paid
by both workers and employers. In December, Congress passed a
one-year tax cut for workers, to 4.2 percent. The lost revenue
is to be repaid to Social Security from general revenue funds,
meaning it will add to the growing national debt.
Social Security has built up a $2.5 trillion surplus since the
retirement program was last overhauled in the 1980s. Benefits
will be safe until that money runs out. That is projected to
happen in 2037 — unless Congress acts in the meantime. At that
point, Social Security would collect enough in payroll taxes to
pay out about 78 percent of benefits, according to the Social
Security Administration.
The $2.5 trillion surplus, however, has been borrowed over the
years by the federal government and spent on other programs. In
return, the Treasury Department has issued bonds to Social
Security, guaranteeing repayment with interest.
Social Security supporters are adamant that the program will be
repaid, just as the U.S. government repays others who invest in
U.S. Treasury bonds.
"It's an IOU that is backed by Treasury bonds and the faith and
credit of the United States government," said Sen. Bernie
Sanders, I-Vt. "It is the same faith and credit that enables us
to borrow from rich people and from China and from other
countries. As you well know, in the history of this country, the
United States has never defaulted on one penny owed to a
creditor."
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