No Way Obama Wins in 2012
By DICK MORRIS
Published on
TheHill.com on March 15, 2011
The combination of high oil and gasoline prices, rising food costs,
higher health insurance premiums and the likelihood of future inflation
has jarred consumer confidence, creating a major crisis for the Obama
administration.
The collapse has been sudden and dramatic.
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In December, the consumer confidence scale in the Rasmussen Poll
stood at 81.7 percent. But in January, euphoria set in. Obama
compromised on the George W. Bush tax cuts, the nation seemed to
be coming together after the Giffords shooting and a Republican
House sat poised to stop any new spending or social
experimentation. On Jan. 11, the Rasmussen confidence index rose
to 88.3.
Then reality dawned. Unemployment remained persistently high,
economic growth was largely stagnant and partisan bickering
resumed. The confidence level on Feb. 11 dropped to 84.5.
Then the bottom fell out. The daily Rasmussen polling reflected
a drop day after day until, by March 11, the index had fallen to
73.1, its lowest level since it registered a 69 in July of 2009,
in the depths of the recession.
The false dawn of January has faded and the hard, cold reality
of a likely second recession is setting in. But this recession
is accompanied by the likelihood of inflation, a stagflation
syndrome that will probably grip America for years. And which
will likely take a manmade recession, on the order of 1979-82,
to counter it.
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Will
Obama get reelected? No way! In the teeth of the economic catastrophe
that is shaping up, his chances are doomed.
The tsunami in Japan, perhaps the greatest tragedy since 9/11, will
further impede any prospect for economic growth. There will be a demand
for spending to repair the devastation of the quake. But Japan is tied
with China as the world's second largest economy, generating 12 percent
of the global GDP. With Japan neither producing nor buying for the
foreseeable future, the drag on the global economy will be profound.
Worse, the Fed and the administration are out of tools to help. Interest
rates are already at zero. Fiscal stimulus -- the deficit -- already
consumes 40 percent of our total government outlays. The Fed is printing
money at a ferocious rate under its qualitative easing (QE-2) program.
What is left to do?
Only dramatic cuts in the federal deficit, a rollback of regulations
that cripple small and community banks, a cancellation of future tax
increase plans, a big reduction in federal spending, repeal of
ObamaCare, freeing manufacturing from the prospect of carbon taxation
and unleashing our domestic energy potential can solve our problems. But
Obama is not about to undo his legacy of disaster for the American
people.
And then there is the longer-term oil and gasoline crisis. Instability
in the Middle East is going to mount, not recede. The chances of
disruption in Saudi oil supplies and the possibility of an overthrow of
the regime (triggered by the best efforts of Iran) will continue to
force prices upward. The drag on the economy and the rising consumer
discontent in the United States spell further problems for the Obama
presidency.
As the Rev. Jeremiah Wright said -- outrageously and wrongly -- about
9/11, "the chickens are coming home to roost." The policies of this
administration -- the disastrous overspending, the irresponsible
borrowing, the social experimentation -- all are magnifying and
amplifying the impact of the recession. Relief is not going to come
anytime soon.
Instead, the true legacy of the Obama years is likely to be stagflation
and an entire decade wiped out by his policies, budget and programs.
Long after he is gone in 2013, we will still be repairing the damage of
his terrible decisions.
(c) COPYRIGHT 2011, DICK MORRIS AND EILEEN MCGANN..
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