Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Mar 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 1164 (N24W46), 1165
(S20W68), 1166 (N11E27), and a new region numbered today as 1169
(N21E56) have all produced C-class events in the past 24 hours.  The
largest of these was a C8 at 06/1444Z from Region 1164.  This region
continues to maintain its Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for a M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with one period of unsettled
conditions reported at 06/1500Z.  Observations from the ACE
spacecraft observed a period around 06/1350Z of southward Bz to -5nT
and a Bt of +6nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions,
and a slight chance for minor storm levels at high latitudes, for
day one (07 March).  This activity is expected due to the possible
arrival of the CME observed on 03 March.  Predominately quiet
conditions are expected for days two and three (08-09 March).
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Mar 143
Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        06 Mar 090
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/05/05
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales