Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels for the past 24 hours.
Region 1450 (N15W31) produced a B9 flare at 05/1327Z and a C3/1f
flare at 05/1624Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with C-class flares likely for the next three days (06-08 April).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past
24 hours with minor to severe storm periods at high latitudes.  The
increased activity was associated with periods of sustained
southward IMF Bz and increased IMF Bt associated with intermittent
solar sector boundary changes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (6 April) due to the
weak CME that was associated with the filament eruption that
occurred on 02 April.  The field is expected to return to quiet
levels on day two (7 April), then be at quiet to unsettled levels
due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective on day
three (8 April).
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Apr 101
Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr  105/110/115
90 Day Mean        05 Apr 117
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  007/008-006/005-007/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor storm           25/15/25
Major-severe storm    10/05/15
Solar wind
speed: 316.2 km/sec
density: 2.1 protons/cm3
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1355 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B2
0628 UT Apr06
24-hr: C1
0000 UT Apr06
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1300 UT
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