Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Apr 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
An M1 flare was observed from a region around the east limb at
16/1745Z. Region 1459 (S15E56) continued to grow and is now
considered an Fhi-beta type group. A filament erupted at
approximately 16/1300Z near S43E33. The associated CME is not
expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next three days
(17-19 April).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (17-19 April).
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Apr 108
Predicted   17 Apr-19 Apr  110/115/115
90 Day Mean        16 Apr 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr  004/005-004/005-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10