The Keystone XL Pipeline is curving around some politically sensitive areas. But President Obama is figuring that the $7 billion investment will bring him huge political headaches just before the November election.

So, the deal will have to wait until the coast is clear. Any movement on the 1,700 mile line will be postponed until early next year, which is safely after the election and when all the regulators say that they will have fairly assessed the proposal. At that point, the pipeline will take on a different route, appeasing some but not its true opponents -- the environmental movement that sees the XL line as enemy number one. For now, the president wants to appease this group. 

The flip side is that by delaying the decision he is upsetting the labor movement, and a lot Americans who think that the focus ought to be on job creation and reducing foreign oil dependence. In fact, a survey released Wednesday by “Resonate” says that about half of all Keystone Pipeline supporters are not Republican, meaning they are Independents and Democrats. Those results are similar to ones reached by the GallupOrganization, which found 71 percent of all Americans in favor. 

In light of such support, TransCanada has let it be known that it will develop its tar sands and if such fuel does not head to the United States, the raw products will instead get shipped to and refined in Asia -- a proposition that has some scared that even more greenhouse gas emissions would be created. 

That said, opponents of the line have already said that if they can derail this project for at least a few years, it would be a victory: Not only would it mark one of the few times that they have succeeded in such an endeavor but also a completely new political or technological paradigm may exist at that time. 

In the president’s case, he ostensibly declined the project in January based on procedural reasons -- that the state of Nebraska rejected the line’s path, pointing out that it went through environmentally sensitive areas. Obama then said that he would revisit the proposal once the stakeholders create a new route -- after the November 2012 elections. Quite convenient. Consider also that the president approved in 2010 the Alberta Clipper, a shorter but similar pipeline. 

Pipeline Trapped

Now, though, TransCanada has redrawn its pathway and submitted a new application for consideration to the U.S. Department of State, which must approve all international deals like this. Nebraska, meanwhile, is said to now be on board. All things considered, one would expect the deal to get fast-tracked, given that the State Department has already scrutinized -- and approved -- most everything about the project except the small area that got redirected in Nebraska. 

But that won’t happen until early next year, it says. Why? Nebraska has not formally given its okay for the new route. It also says that when a pipeline company wants to build, the process must remain open and transparent. As such, the agency is now taking comments and pouring through them all. 

“The new application includes proposed new routes through the state of Nebraska,” says the State Department. “The Department is committed to conducting a rigorous, transparent and thorough review. We will consider this new application on its merits.” It goes on to say that it will hire a third party and independent firm to perform the Environmental Impact Statement. 

The president would prefer not to discuss this issue. But the Romney campaign is eager, and will point out the president’s political ploys and his hypocrisy. Obama, though, has calculated that he needs to shore up his base and that alienating it right before an election is ill-advised. If the president wins, however, that pact-of-convenience will get dissolved. That’s because all state and federal regulatory agencies will have weighed in, paving the way for the line to go through. 

“The fact the Department of State has reaffirmed its timeline for making a decision on a Presidential Permit for Keystone XL early next year is an important development,” says Russ Girling, TransCanada's chief executive officer. “It is important to recognize that by the time a final decision on this critical piece of North American energy infrastructure is made, Keystone XL will be well into its fifth year of exhaustive and detailed studies.” 

If job creation is atop America’s priorities, then the XL pipeline could deliver about 20,000 of them in the near term, albeit many jobs would be temporary or tied to corresponding businesses. If the environment is a key concern, the State Department has already said that the project would not produce anymore greenhouse gas emissions than those of other heavy crude oils refined here. 

Political concerns are trumping all other matters, however, ensnaring this pipeline in a political web in which it cannot immediately weave itself out.

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