Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Aug 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 1532 (S18W28) and 1535
(N17E24) produced C-class flares; the largest was a C1 at 0456Z.  An
additional C1 event was observed at 1310Z off the west limb (near
old Region 1526). A coronal mass ejection was associated with the
behind-limb event, but is not expected to be geoeffective.  New
Region 1539 (S22E60) was numbered and is a small bipolar group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity began the period at quiet levels.  A
transient from the 28 July CME arrived at the ACE spacecraft at
approximately 02/0954Z, producing active to minor storm activity
levels from 02/1200Z through the end of the analysis period.  Bz was
continuously negative multiple times throughout the period, peaking
at -12.3 nT at 02/1220Z.  Solar wind showed a slight increase to 496
km/s at 02/1938Z and has since subsided.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (03 August) followed by
mostly quiet levels on days 2 and 3 (04-05 August).
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Aug 135
Predicted   03 Aug-05 Aug  135/135/130
90 Day Mean        02 Aug 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug  007/008-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/05/05