Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Aug 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was low to moderate.  Newly numbered
Region 1542 (S13E75) produced an M1 x-ray flare at 06/0438Z, with
associated Type II (estimated velocity of 552 km/s) and Type IV
radio sweeps, as well as several C-class flares.  Two CMEs were
observed on LASCO C2 imagery with the majority of the ejecta off the
northeast limb.  These CMEs do not appear to be Earth-directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is forecast to be at
low levels with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with active
periods at high latitudes due to an extended period of southward Bz.
ACE solar wind data indicated fairly consistent solar wind
velocities around 350 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (07 Aug), then
increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Aug) due to a
glancing blow from the 04 Aug CME.  Day three (09 Aug) should see a
return to mostly quiet levels with isolated unsettled periods as the
effects of the CME begin to wane.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Aug 134
Predicted   07 Aug-09 Aug  135/130/130
90 Day Mean        06 Aug 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  006/005-007/010-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/25/20
Major-severe storm    05/25/20