Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Aug 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  New Region 1544 (S30W06) was
the most active region on the solar disk, producing three C-class
flares.  However, Region 1542 (S14E37) produced the largest flare of
the period, a C8 x-ray flare, at 09/1147Z.  Further analysis will be
conducted to determine the geoeffectiveness of any CMEs associated
with this flare as more data becomes available.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled
period from 09/0000Z-0300Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet on day one (10 Aug).  Days two and three
(Aug 11-12) are expected to be quiet to unsettled due to the effects
of the interaction between the two filaments that lifted off the
solar disk on 07 and 08 Aug and the corotating interaction region
ahead of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Aug 131
Predicted   10 Aug-12 Aug  135/130/130
90 Day Mean        09 Aug 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug  012/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  006/005-007/008-007/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    05/10/25