Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2012 Aug 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1543 (N20W05) produced
the largest event of the period, a C2 flare at 13/1240Z, with
associated Type II (estimated velocity of 736 km/s) and Type IV
radio sweeps. Analysis is underway to determine the potential
geoeffectiveness of a possible CME associated with this flare as
more data becomes available. Region 1543 also produced a C1/Sf at
13/0413Z, with an associated Type IV radio sweep. Regions 1543 and
1542 (S12W18) were generally unchanged and have beta-gamma magnetic
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for an active
period on day 1 (14 August) due to a high speed stream from a
coronal hole. Days 2 and 3 (15 - 16 August) are expected to be at
predominately quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Aug 108
Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 13 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 009/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/05/05
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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