Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Aug 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1548 (N18E18)
produced the largest event of the period, a B6/Sf flare at 22/1658Z.
The remaining numbered regions were stable and quiet. A full halo
CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at
21/2024Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 884 km/s. STEREO-A
and STEREO-B COR2 imagery shows this CME to be a back-sided event
and is not expected to be geoeffective. SDO/AIA 193 imagery showed a
filament eruption in the vicinity of plage Region 1549 (S18W72) at
approximately 22/0930Z. A CME was subsequently observed in LASCO/C2
coronagraph imagery at 22/1012Z, and in LASCO C3 imagery at
22/1118Z. Analysis is underway to determine the potential
geoeffectiveness of this event.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for C-class flares for the next three days
(23-25 August).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for days 1-3 (23-25 August).
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Aug 095
Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug  095/100/100
90 Day Mean        22 Aug 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  006/005-006/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05