Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Aug 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1558 (N18E78)
produced the largest flare of the period, a B9 at 27/0821Z. Three
new regions were numbered: Region 1556 (S12W79) an Axx-alpha type
group; Region 1557 (N17E38) a Bxo-beta type group; and Region 1558 a
Bxo-beta type group. The remaining numbered regions were stable and
quiet. Several CMEs were observed however none appear to be
Earth-directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for moderate activity for the next
three days (28-30 August).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for active
conditions on days 1-2 (28-29 August) due to continued effects from
a coronal hole high speed stream. On day 3 (30 August), conditions
are expected to return to predominately quiet levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Aug 112
Predicted   28 Aug-30 Aug  120/120/125
90 Day Mean        27 Aug 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug  007/008-007/008-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    25/25/05