Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1542 (S14W46) produced
the largest event of the period, a C1/1f flare at 14/2232Z.  Region
1543 (N21W34) is the largest region on the disk and showed little
change while maintaining a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (16 - 18 August).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for active
conditions on day 1 (16 August) due to effects from the 13 August
CME. Unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm
conditions are expected on Day 2 (17 August) due to effects from the
14 August CME. Quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
active conditions are expected on Day 3 (18 August) as effects of
the CME begin to subside.

III.  Event Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Aug 101
Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug  100/100/095
90 Day Mean        15 Aug 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  007/010-010/014-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor storm           10/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/15/05