ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13 and
into spring 2013
During November 2012, the Pacific Ocean reflected ENSO-neutral
conditions. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies were
slightly positive across all of the tropical Pacific Ocean except for
the far eastern portion (Fig.
1), as also indicated in the Niņo indices (Fig.
2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m
of the ocean) was also slightly above average (Fig.
3), with largest amplitude in the east-central part of the basin (Fig.
4). Despite the subsurface and surface Pacific Ocean being slightly
warmer than average, the tropical atmosphere remained in an ENSO-neutral
state. Upper-level and lower-level zonal winds were near average, and
convection was slightly suppressed over the eastern and central tropical
Pacific (Fig.
5). Thus, both the atmosphere and ocean indicated ENSO-neutral
conditions.
Relative to last month, the SST model predictions increasingly favor
ENSO-neutral, with many remaining just slightly above average in the
Niņo-3.4 region through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13 and into
spring 2013 (Fig.
6). While the tropical atmosphere and especially the ocean suggested
borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niņo conditions at times from July to
September, these signs have now largely dissipated. Therefore, it is
considered unlikely that a fully coupled El Niņo will develop during the
next several months. ENSO-neutral is now favored through the Northern
Hemisphere winter 2012-13 and into spring 2013 (see
CPC/IRI consensus forecast).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and
their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are
updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El
Niņo/La Niņa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts
for the evolution of El Niņo/La Niņa are updated monthly in the
Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The
next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 January 2013. To
receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic
Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to:
ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304
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