The End of the Green Revolution
From: Andy Soos, ENN
Published December 18, 2012 02:10 PM
Green Revolution refers to a series of research, development, and
technology transfer initiatives, occurring between the 1940s and the
late 1970s, that increased agriculture production around the world,
beginning most markedly in the late 1960s. It forms a part of the
neo-colonial system of agriculture wherein agriculture was viewed more
of a commercial sector than a subsistence one. The Green Revolution has
since stagnated for key food crops in many regions of the world,
according to a study published in the Dec. 18 issue of Nature
Communications by scientists with the University of Minnesota’s
Institute on the Environment and McGill University in Montreal, Canada.
Led by IonE research fellow Deepak Ray, the study team developed
geographically detailed maps of annual crop harvested areas and yields
of maize (corn), rice, wheat and soybeans from 1961 to 2008. It found
that although virtually all regions showed a yield increase sometime
during that period, in 24 to 39 percent of the harvested areas
(depending on the crop) yield plateaued or outright declined in recent
years. Among the top crop-producing nations, vast areas of two of the
most populous — China and India — are witnessing especially concerning
stagnation or decline in yield.
Cereal production more than doubled in developing nations between the
years 1961—1985. Yields of rice, maize, and wheat increased steadily
during that period. The production increases can be attributed roughly
equally to irrigation, fertilizer, and seed development, at least in the
case of Asian rice. The Green Revolution can be credited with saving
over a billion people from starvation.
"This study clearly delineates areas where yields for important food
crops are stagnating, declining, or never improved, as well areas where
yields are still rapidly improving," Ray says. "As a result, it both
sounds the alert for where we must shift our course if we are to feed a
growing population in the decades to come, and points to positive
examples to emulate."
Interestingly, the researchers found that yields of wheat and rice — two
crops that are largely used as food crops, and which supply roughly half
of the world's dietary calories — are declining across a higher
percentage of cropland than those of corn and soybean, which are used
largely to produce meat or biofuels.
"This finding is particularly troubling because it suggests that we have
preferentially focused our crop improvement efforts on feeding animals
and cars, as we have largely ignored investments in wheat and rice,
crops that feed people and are the basis of food security in much of the
world," said study co-author and IonE director Jonathan Foley. "How can
we meet the growing needs of feeding people in the future if one-third
of our cropland areas, in our most important crops, are not improving in
yield any more?"
Without continuing Green Revolution efforts the Malthusian predictions
of overpopulation resulting in famine may come true.
The paper suggests two actions based on its findings. First, it
recommends working to maintain the positive trajectory for the 61 to 76
percent of croplands where yield is still climbing. Second, it
encourages crop-producing regions around the world to look at their
yield trends and those of others to identify what’s working and what
might be improved.
For further information see Green Revolution.
Figure image via Deepak Ray, Institute on the Environment from
University of Minnesota.
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