Ken Silverstein | Nov 28, 2012

Global climate change talks are now underway in Doha, Qatar and are focusing on crafting solutions to issues presented in earlier meetings. The 194 nations now present are discussing an array of thorny matters that most notably include the ways and means by which the developed world will assist those less developed.

No one is expecting a far-reaching agreement whereby the national governments would bind themselves to firm cuts in their greenhouse gas releases. That’s especially true as the major emitters -- the United States and China -- have never signed on to such a deal. Meanwhile, Canada, Japan and Russia, which inked the original Kyoto Protocol in 1997, are no longer onboard.

That inertia, however, is now running headfirst into new warnings: Fifty-five scientists representing a cross-section of nations authored a UN report last week that says that the world must keep its rise in temperature below 2 degrees Celsius this century, or about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. But those same experts are saying that current national measures to reduce greenhouse emissions won’t cut it.

“There are many inspiring actions taking place at the national level on energy efficiency in buildings, investing in forests to avoid emissions linked with deforestation and new vehicle emissions standards,” says Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary General. He adds that those steps are occurring alongside new investments in renewable energies, which totaled $260 billion in 2011.

“Yet the sobering fact remains that a transition to a low carbon Green Economy is happening far too slowly,” he adds, noting that the opportunity to meet the threshold from which to permanently slow down world temperatures is fast approaching. The need is urgent to fulfill the financial and technology transfers to those nations that must expand their economies in a responsible way.

Two issues stand in the way those goals, says Michael Levi, senior fellow for energy and the environment at the Council on Foreign Relations. The first is getting to an agreement on the amount of money to be transferred and the second is the language associated with any treaty as it pertains to exactly how much and by what methods carbon cuts would occur.

Temperature Rise

To that end, developed countries are supposed to give $100 billion to poorer ones by 2020, all to help them curb their heat-trapping emissions. But the richer nations are already over-extended, casting doubt on their near-term promises.

“Washington knows that it cannot deliver massive sums of money in the next few years, and as a result, it will not sign up to financial pledges that others might push for,” writes Levi.

As for Kyoto, it is requiring developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 5 percent below 1990 levels before the end of 2012. The European Union (EU) has set out to accomplish this by enacting a renewable portfolio standard that includes energy efficiency measures of 20 percent by 2020. 

According to the European Environment Agency, 15 EU countries have cut such emissions by 10.7 percent below 1990 levels. However, carbon emissions are now rising -- a move that the agency says is being constrained because of moves away from coal and into natural gas and renewables.

Europe’s strides, though, are not trending. Data compiled by the UN shows that global carbon emissions have increased by 25 percent since 2000. China has doubled its releases in the last decade while India's has risen by 50 percent.

The UN is trying to see the glass as half-full, emphasizing that the rapidly developing countries of Brazil, China, Indonesia and South Africa have concrete plans to reduce their emissions. They will also allow their progress to be monitored and verified. China, for example, has set upon a course to increase its green and nuclear energy as a way to cut into its coal-fired power base.

"Governments meeting in (Qatar) now need to urgently implement existing decisions which will allow for a swifter transition towards a low-carbon and resilient world,” says Christiana Figueres, executive secretary for the UN climate panel. “This notably means amending the Kyoto Protocol, developing a clear vision of how greenhouse gases can be curbed globally before and after 2020.”

The current climate change talks are unlikely to produce a major breakthrough. But  negotiations will likely resolve some critical details, which inlcude the technological and financial assistance required by the developing world. Whether those steps are enough to keep the escalation in the world’s temperatures below the threshold the UN would like, however, is still unknown.


EnergyBiz Insider has been awarded the Gold for Original Web Commentary presented by the American Society of Business Press Editors. The column is also the Winner of the 2011 Online Column category awarded by Media Industry News, MIN. Ken Silverstein has been honored as one of MIN’s Most Intriguing People in Media.

Twitter: @Ken_Silverstein

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