With the nuclear energy capacity in
Germany will be halved in 2020
The energy market in Germany will see dramatic changes
during the next few years. With the nuclear energy capacity halved,
the landscape to 2020 will look very different with renewable energy
to account for 36 percent of electricity generated.
Frost & Sullivan’s Energy group forecasts that overall
electricity generation will decline from 625TWh in 2010 to 590TWh in
2020, due to energy efficiency measures and increased imports (which
will be needed to fill part of the gap left by the nuclear plant
closures). However, the installed capacity is set to rise from 153GW
to 179GW in 2020. This is mainly because of the growth in wind and
solar, both of which have relatively low availability and need to be
supported by back-up power such as gas turbines.
Frost & Sullivan Energy Consultant Jonathan Robinson says: “Germany
is already a leading European renewables market, but it will go
beyond its EU obligations with significant further investment in the
next eight years. However, the growth in renewables poses serious
challenges and will require substantial investment in upgrading the
existing power transmission infrastructure.”
For what concerns renewable energy, solar and wind are set to play a
big part in future. Solar PV capacity is forecast to treble while
wind will grow by average of 2GW per year. Massive change is
forecast for solar in particular - renewable energy to account for
36 percent of electricity generation by 2020 (aim of EEG is to raise
renewable energy share to at least 35 percent of gross power
consumption by 2020).
Energy efficiency will play an important role in the reduction in
demand; the Energy Efficiency Act (EnEfG) sets target to reduce
energy consumption by 9 per cent in 2020, in comparison to
consumption 2001-2005.
“Energy efficiency will be a big topic in 2012, as the EU moves
towards forcing Member States to take action. The voluntary approach
adopted in 2007 has largely failed, with minimal energy efficiency
gains in most Member States. As usual in these matters, Germany is
already leading the way, but it is likely that more will need to be
done,” adds Robinson.
However, from now till 2020, according to Frost & Sullivan, coal
will remain the leading fuel (37 per cent of generation) but Germany
will experience a decline in lignite-fired output as older power
stations are decommissioned. We will also see an increase in share
of gas through an accelerated development programme – though greater
shares anticipated post-2020.
“Germany has of course always been a key market for power generation
equipment, but there is now the need for across the board investment
in generation, transmission and distribution. This creates
interesting opportunities for equipment manufacturers and project
developers,” concludes Robinson.
For more information, visit our source: www.frost.com
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