Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Feb 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (03-05 February).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (03 February) due to CH
HSS effects. Conditions should return to mostly quiet levels on days
2 and 3 (04-05 February).
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Feb 118
Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb  120/120/120
90 Day Mean        02 Feb 141
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  008/008-004/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01