Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Feb 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels due to C-class flaring
from Region 1415 (N10W73), the largest a C2/Sf at 08/2217Z.  The
region showed little change as it approached the west limb.  New
Region 1416 (S16E24) emerged on the disk as a D-type spot group and
produced two B9 x-ray events.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels for the next three days (10 - 12 February).  A slight
chance for M-class activity exists on days two and three due to the
anticipated return of old Region 1402 (N26, L=213).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods observed at high latitudes.  ACE satellite wind
velocities began the period at about 450 km/s and gradually
decreased to near 360 km/s through 09/1230Z.  During this same time
frame, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not
vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.  By 09/1230Z, an increase in temperature,
density, velocity and Bt were recorded at ACE.  These signatures
were indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a
coronal high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated high
latitude active periods on day one (10 February).  This activity is
due to effects from a geoeffective CH HSS.  By day two (11
February), quiet to unsettled conditions are expected as the CH HSS
rotates out of a geoeffective position.  Day three (12 February) is
expected to see a return to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
high latitude active intervals due to another CH HSS that will move
into a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M    05/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Feb 099
Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb  105/115/120
90 Day Mean        09 Feb 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  006/008-004/005-006/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/05/30
Minor storm           10/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/10/40
Minor storm           20/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01