Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Feb 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with the chance for M-class flares over the next 3 days
(14-16 February).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes and
ranged between unsettled to minor storm levels at high latitudes.
The activity was the result of a sub-storm as well as the onset of
short lived coronal hole high speed stream effects.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin day 1 (14 February) at quiet to unsettled levels.
Between 06Z and 12Z, an anticipated glancing blow from the CME on 11
February is expected at Earth, with a subsequent increase in
geomagnetic activity. Primarily unsettled and active levels are
forecast to persist throughout the day, with an isolated minor storm
possible. Conditions on day 2 (15 February) should begin to subside,
with quiet and unsettled levels expected during recovery from the
transient. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (16
February).
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Feb 108
Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        13 Feb 134
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  012/018-006/008-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/10
Minor storm           20/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/30/10
Minor storm           30/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01