Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Feb 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The disk and
limb were quiet and stable.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (17 -
19 February).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  ACE solar wind
velocities varied between 350 to 400 km/s while the Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly northward to +5 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (17 February)
through late on day two (18 February).  Late on day two and through
day three (19 February), field activity is expected to increase to
quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active levels, due to
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Feb 103
Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb  105/105/100
90 Day Mean        16 Feb 132
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  018/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  006/005-008/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/30/30
Minor storm           01/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/40/40
Minor storm           01/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05