Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Feb 23 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 1422 (N15W52)
showed decay in its trailing spots.  A new region appeared on the NE
limb and was numbered Region 1423 (N18E70).  Two CMEs were observed
overnight; the first off the North limb, observed in LASCO C2
imagery beginning at approximately 23/0148Z and the second beginning
at 23/0824Z off the NW limb.  The second CME was associated with a
filament eruption on the NW limb first seen in SDO/AIA 193 imagery
at 23/0746Z.  None of the CMEs are expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for a C-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Solar wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft decreased from approximately 530 km/s to 440 km/s while
the Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field did not vary
much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet conditions for the forecast
period (24 - 26 February).
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Feb 103
Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb  105/105/100
90 Day Mean        23 Feb 130
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  004/005-004/005-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05