Even
as the National Transitional Council (NTC)
declared Libya “liberated” following the violent death of
former strongman Col. Muammar Gadhafi, analysts were warning
that civil war might continue to rage on as militia groups and
armed factions struggle to seize power. And with real elections
tentatively scheduled for 2013 at the earliest, the worst
may be yet to come.
Western leaders have been demanding that all of the
revolutionary groups unify behind the NTC. But widely divergent
interests — including remaining pro-Gadhafi forces and
victims of
NATO bombings and rebel brutality — would seem to make that
a difficult proposition, according to Libyans and outside
analysts.
There are many critical and possibly irreconcilable fault lines
dividing Libyan society — Islamists, liberals, tribal chiefs,
ethic groups, Gadhafi loyalists, desert nomads, regional
factions, and more. The potential for a new explosion of
violence, therefore, exists and will persist.
Some of the competing groups and interests were able to unite
around deposing the Libyan government. But now that it is
officially ousted, the already-tense situation becomes even
more complex.
Various self-appointed councils, committees, militias, and
brigades continue bickering, with some even
producing arrest warrants for leaders of others. And many of
the groups and chiefs have so far refused to recognize the NTC
as the new legitimate regime.
“With so many armed groups operating in Tripoli and elsewhere in
Libya, a peaceful resolution to the question of who should take
power is unlikely,” noted an
analysis by Stratfor, a global intelligence firm. “The shape
of the new Libya is highly uncertain, but what is clear is that
the NTC is not going to simply take control where Gadhafi left
off.”
More violence is likely. And tensions are so high that some
experts have suggested that another “civil war” is a distinct
possibility as the power struggle between different armed
coalitions continues to gain strength.
"The unique common goal for all the NTC factions was to defeat
Gaddafi and clear the ground for building a new Libyan
authority. So in a way Gaddafi continued to keep the country
united even during the conflict,"
noted Gabriele Iacovino, a North Africa analyst at the
Italy-based International Studies Centre. "Now Gadhafi is dead
and who knows what will happen next."
Countless militiamen still roam the streets answering only to
their own local commanders, with more than a few reports of
looting, retribution, and violence. Even in Tripoli, where an al
Qaeda-linked Islamist who once battled U.S. troops in
Afghanistan is
supposed to be in charge, disorder is reportedly
running rampant.
The NTC has lost a huge amount of credibility among Libyans and
foreigners alike, with self-styled Council spokesmen making
often-contradictory statements that have repeatedly been proven
false. The group falsely claimed, for example, that it had
captured Gadhafi’s son, only to have him appear triumphantly
in Tripoli later that day surrounded by cheering supporters.
More recently, claims of “mass graves” attributed to Gadhafi are
questionable at best,
according to reporters in Libya. And the lies keep coming:
There are at least four
different versions of how Gadhafi was killed floating
around.
Divisions between the pro- and anti-Gadhafi camps remain strong,
too. As rebel forces overtook Gadhafi strongholds, countless
suspected supporters of the regime were arrested, tortured, and
even executed without trial.
Even with overwhelming assistance from the most powerful
military alliance in the world, it took nearly eight months to
officially bring down the regime — indicating a strong level of
resistance against the new regime that will not be easy to
quell. And Gadhafi reportedly distributed huge stockpiles of
wealth and arms among loyalists nationwide before his demise in
preparation for what his regime
vowed would be a long-lasting insurgency.
Indeed, loyalists are still being urged to keep fighting for the
Libyan “Jamahiriya,” a term invented by Gadhafi to describe his
system of government that roughly translates to “state of the
masses.” One pro-Gadhafi media outlet released a piece after the
despot was reportedly killed
saying that the regime still existed and would continue to fight.
“Libyans should continue their mass green demonstrations and
resistance,”
urged the Mathaba News Network, claiming the “Leader” was
actually still alive and that reports of the new regime
controlling all of Libya were a myth. “The NTC leaders and their
factions are all fighting amongst each other, and are
dissatisfied with the spoils, which so far have not been
forthcoming due to the armed population putting up a fierce
resistance, and the globalist bankers being unable to keep their
promises to the Libyan traitors.”
Citing the Secretary General of the “International People's
Conference Organization,” Mathaba said the West was anxious to
secure for itself and its regime in Libya the former
government’s frozen assets around the world. But, according to
the organization, it could not do so as long as the “Jamahiriya”
continued to exist.
“And it does continue to exist, because it consists of over
6,000 basic people's conferences,” the Secretary General
told Mathaba, referring to local citizen committees
established by the old regime. "The fact that the basic people's
conferences could not convene at least twice a year as usual
this year, has been because of the heavy NATO bombing and lack
of security for the public to gather in their conference halls.”
But, he said, the “Jamahiriya” and its existing legislation will
remain in force until “the masses” can convene again. The
article, however, did not offer any hints about when that date
might come.
The NTC and its Western backers, of course, see the situation
much differently. As far as the new regime is concerned, one of
the first tasks now will be to disarm the population. But even
revolutionary fighters who helped topple Gadhafi have not agreed
to disarm, let alone loyalist remnants.
"If they try to come by force, I'll never hand over my weapon,”
a “brigade commander” from Misrata named Mohamed al Majog, whose
forces occupy part of Tripoli,
told McClatchy Newspapers. “They need to negotiate, we'll
listen, and we'll work something out.”
Tribal chiefs, Taureg nomads, and other groups might be even
harder to persuade, especially if they fear retribution for
backing the late despot. Another militia “field commander”
told Reuters he was worried that big problems were on the
horizon.
"The fear now is what is going to happen next," the ex-rebel
chieftain explained. "There is going to be regional in-fighting.
You have Zintan and Misrata on one side and then Benghazi and
the east.... There is in-fighting even inside the army."
Interim NTC boss Mahmud Jibril also
conceded that trouble was brewing, saying that political
bickering could sink Libya into chaos before the final
Sharia law-based Constitution was even established. “We are
heading toward a political battle, but the rules of the game are
not clearly defined,” he told assembled militia chiefs. “We went
from a national battle to a political battle, and this should
not have happened before the creation of a state.”
Beyond Libyan warlords, the potential for more violence has many
foreign governments concerned as well. The regime ruling Sri
Lanka, for example, does not even plan to re-open its embassy in
Tripoli until things calm down.
“The NTC has suggested that warring factions are still in the
country,” Sri Lankan foreign ministry spokesman Sarath
Dissanayake
told the Sunday Leader. “Until the situation
improves we will not be sending back the embassy staff.”
Western leaders, on the other hand, have promised to continue
showering the new Libyan regime with taxpayer money for as long
as necessary. But NATO, which played a crucial role in toppling
Gadhafi,
reportedly plans to end its military campaign by the end of
the month.
Some national leaders in the alliance, however, want to stay and
help the country “transition” to “democracy” — especially after
witnessing other nations’ so-called transitions.
After Egypt’s purported “liberation,” for instance, the military
junta that seized power from Mubarak has taken to slaughtering
Christian protesters and delaying elections. Afghanistan and
Iraq are also still in chaos despite securing untold billions of
Western taxpayer money.
While U.S. and European officials were busy boasting and
celebrating the brutal killing of their former terror-war ally,
some analysts warned that further bloodshed in Libya could
tarnish the perception of the regime-change mission and its
backers. "If there is no stability, that would beg the question
if the whole operation was really a success,"
noted Daniel Keohane of the Belgium-based Institute of
Security Studies.
Around the world, some experts also noted that the demise of
Gadhafi could lead to further global destabilization as rulers
learn that acquiring weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) may be
the only way to prevent a Western takeover of the nations they
rule. Consider: Saddam Hussein and Gadhafi were both overthrown
after giving up their weapons programs, while the brutal tyrant
lording over North Korea remains secure.
Photo of
Libyans celebrating Oct. 23 as transitional government declares
liberation of Libya: AP Images
http://www.thenewamerican.com/world-mainmenu-26/africa-mainmenu-27/9496-analysts-hint-at-new-civil-war-in-liberated-libya
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