Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Jan 30 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1410 (N24E16) produced a
single C-class x-ray event during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low over the next 3 days (31 January - 02 February).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet, until the arrival of a glancing blow
from the limb event CME that occurred in association with the X1/1f
flare on 27 January. The transient passage was observed by the ACE
spacecraft at 30/1554Z with a solar wind speed increase from around
350 km/s to near 450 km/s. A weak sudden impulse measuring 8nT was
observed by the Boulder magnetometer at 30/1635Z. Conditions
afterwards ranged from unsettled to quiet. The greater than 10 MeV
proton that began at 27/1905Z and reached a maximum of 796 pfu at
28/0205Z was still in progress at the time of this event, with flux
levels hovering near 20 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days 1-3 (31 January - 02 February).
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux levels, as observed by NOAA
GOES-13 in geosynchronous orbit, are expected to decay below the 10
pfu threshold in the next day or two.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     99/50/01
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jan 114
Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        30 Jan 143
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan  000/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  004/005-004/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01