The future of the U.S. electricity portfolio is a
complex matter that asks the industry to find a path
forward that acceptably balances many different
factors. Once one acknowledges that every generating
technology carries physical, financial and
environmental risks, the conversation can begin in
an intellectually honest manner. In the case of the
nuclear industry, the issues frequently discussed
are the costs of new construction, safety and fuel
management.
Why would a utility consider nuclear power when
public opinion on the risks and rewards appears to
swing more significantly than it does for other
technologies? A response requires taking stock of
the broader situation as it stands today, and then
focusing on the nuclear industry specifically.
We are entering a period where utilities will retool
their generation fleets for the next 40 or more
years. Construction will need to be phased over
time, and the optimum portfolio could change with
the passage of time. Policy drivers of this
build-out include electricity that is reasonably
priced, increasingly low carbon and as clean as
possible, together with North American Electric
Reliability Corp. and Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission mandates for reliability.
In addition, the evolving domestic gas supply,
economics and the anticipated U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency mandates dictate that coal use
will be reduced in the near term. Some argue that
this translates into a natural-gas dominated
electricity sector. While I accept a movement to
natural gas in the near term, that fuel will not
yield the complete decarbonization of the
electricity sector necessary to meet, for example,
the goal to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions to
80 percent below 2005 levels by 2050, as per a
Minnesota statute, among other state and federal
guidelines.
While we have made significant progress with wind
and other renewables that support the greenhouse gas
targets, questions remain regarding the cost and
reliability of integrating very large quantities of
renewable energy into the grid.
So is there is a place for new nuclear in our
generation fleet? Advocates suggest that the answer
is yes, with careful consideration of specific
issues. Aside from hydro, nuclear plants are the
only low- or no-carbon baseload option of
significant scale for many states. Nuclear is also a
part of a balanced generation portfolio that is
prized by many -- but at what cost, at what scale
and under what circumstances?
If the goal is to maintain the present 20 percent of
electricity generation from nuclear, we will need to
replace 40 reactors whose operating licenses expire
by 2030.
Hurdles Remain
There are a number of hurdles that remain for
expansion of nuclear power in the United States.
Chief among these is the capital cost of
construction. Despite projections that the levelized
cost of electricity from newly constructed plants
will be competitive with other generating
technologies, the project costs are so high that
most utilities would be betting their futures by
pursuing a new reactor.
In addition, the first movers would need to develop
new institutional knowledge and confront the
preparedness of our domestic workforce. This could
add significant costs, even though the effect would
benefit those who might follow. Although the federal
government has authorized loan guarantees to help
overcome these barriers, they are significant issues
that limit early movers in the industry.
Secondly, the federal obligation to take possession
of spent fuel and place it in a repository, as
dictated by the Nuclear Waste Policy Act and
standing contracts with the utilities, has not been
fulfilled, and this inaction adds to uncertainty.
The Blue Ribbon Commission on America's Nuclear
Future has proposed policy actions to address this
issue.
Even with swift acceptance of the commission
recommendations, it may be 12 years before any spent
fuel begins to move from present storage sites.
Furthermore, there remain matters of active
litigation over the suspension of licensing
activities for Yucca Mountain, and disputes over the
Nuclear Waste Fund fees.
The obstacles can be addressed and overcome. If the
country can muster the determination, nuclear could
provide a stable and clean baseload fuel for
generations to come.
The story first appeared in EnergyBiz magazine and
can be found here:
http://energybiz.com/magazine/article/243437/addressing-nuclear-challenges
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