Now that France’s Total and China’s Sinopec have
invested $4.5 billion in two of this country’s
premier natural gas developers, common wisdom is
suggesting that the fate of shale-gas here will
outshine all competing energy forms. But is that
logic well considered?
Estimates are that at least a century’s worth of
shale-gas is now recoverable from underneath
America’s feet. Some are betting that such volume
will drive down the cost of that fuel, making the
alternatives unattractive.
“With the new abundance and lower prices,
lower-carbon gas seems likely to play a much larger
role in the generation of electric power,” writes
Daniel Yergin, in his new book “The Quest.” By
comparison, nuclear would seem expensive while coal
would appear to be more carbon intensive. Meantime,
it creates “a more difficult competitive environment
for wind projects.”
Yergin, however, is admonishing policymakers not to
rely exclusively on shale-gas. That’s because too
many factors can disrupt markets and include
everything from politics to environmental and
natural disasters.
Shale will not just become a U.S. phenomenon. But it
will also have a great impact around the globe.
Global proven reserves are estimated to be at 6,600
trillion cubic feet, according to the
U.S. Energy Information Administration. China
and the United States have the most supplies at
1,275 and 862 trillion cubic feet, respectively. In
this country, for example, shale gas has grown 48
percent a year from 2006 to 2010. It now makes up a
third of all natural gas supplies.
The other countries sitting atop huge swaths of
shale gas are Argentina, Mexico, South Africa and
Australia. And while France has such potential, the
regulatory environment there is unfriendly to
developers and instead, it is choosing to maintain
its reliance on nuclear power. For that reason,
Total sees a future in the United States where it
has invested $2.32 billion in Chesapeake Energy in
Ohio’s Utica shale region. China’s Sinopec placed a
similar amount in Devon Energy.
“This is consistent with our strategy to develop
positions in unconventional plays with large
potential and, in this case, with value
predominantly linked to oil price,” says Yves-Louis
Darricarrere, with
Total. “Total is conscious of the environmental
aspects linked to developing shale acreage.”
Diversifying Risks
In “Quest,” Yergin points to the Japanese nuclear
accident and the Arab Spring that caused oil prices
to spike as two geo-political events simultaneously
occurred. Both had a tremendous effect on the energy
economy. But the energy analyst adds that shale-gas
is most impacted by the environmental issues here.
To extract the shale-gas that is embedded inside of
rocks, a concoction of water, sand and chemicals is
pumped a mile beneath the earth’s surface. Not only
does it take a huge amount of water but the mixture
that comes back to the top is filthy. Many
communities have therefore expressed concern about
their water quality.
Another major fear is that the production process is
more carbon-intensive than that of developing
conventional natural gas. And that unease has been
underscored by the International Energy Agency in
France that cautions against unguarded heat-trapping
emissions and is suggesting more investment in clean
technologies.
According to the
BP Energy Outlook, global energy consumption
will rise by 1.7 percent a year until 2030. The
contribution to energy growth of renewables from
solar, wind, geothermal and biofuels is predicted to
increase from 5 percent in 2010 to 18 percent by
2030.
At the same time, the outlook says that natural gas
is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel
while coal and oil are likely to lose market share
as all fossil fuels experience reduced growth rates.
Fossil fuels’ contribution to primary energy growth
is projected to fall from 83 percent to 64 percent.
An
advisory board that includes
Yergin reported in the fall to the U.S.
Department of Energy that jitters centered on
shale-gas development can be addressed by increasing
the level of transparency: “Regulators will have
more complete and accurate information, industry
will achieve more efficient operations and the
public will see continuous, measurable, improvement
in shale gas activities.”
Shale’s rise will undoubtedly make a dent in the
U.S. market place. Part of its ascent will come at
the expense of coal and part will affect wind and
solar. But if the country mitigates its risk by
diversifying its energy interests, green power will
also innovate and see an upswing in production.
EnergyBiz Insider is the Winner of the 2011 Online
Column category awarded by Media Industry News, MIN.
Ken Silverstein has also been named one of the Top
Economics Journalists by Wall Street Economists.
Follow Ken on www.twitter.com/ken_silverstein
energybizinsider@energycentral.com
Copyright © 1996-2011 by
CyberTech,
Inc.
All rights reserved.
To subscribe or visit go to:
http://www.energycentral.com
To subscribe or visit go to:
http://www.energybiz.com