The new head of the Energy Information Administration (EIA)
believes that cheap natural gas prices are hurting coal more in the
electric power generation market than tough anti-pollution standards
from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
“It’s clearly being driven more by price competition,” EIA
Administrator Adam Sieminski said when asked July 2 for his thoughts
on coal’s declining share in the power market. Inter-fuel price
competition and the “price benefits associated with lower cost
natural gas,” are the big issue hurting coal at least in the short
term, Sieminski said.
Longer-term, “the age of the coal plants and the need for emissions
reduction” will also weigh heavily on coal-fired generation,
Sieminski said.
Sieminski made his comments during the Platts Energy Podium; a
reporter roundtable session held July 2 in Washington, D.C. Podcasts
of recent such podium events are available on the company’s website.
Sieminski is still pretty new to EIA’s top job. Sieminski was sworn
in on June 4, as the eighth administrator of EIA, the data and
analytical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy. While awaiting
confirmation by the Senate, he was a senior director on the staff of
the National Security Council. Previously, he was the chief energy
economist for Deutsche Bank, working on the institution's global
commodities research and trading units.
During the question-and-answer session, Sieminski noted that natural
gas pulled even with coal-fired generation for electricity market
share in April when both fuel sectors claimed roughly one-third of
the electric generation market. Coal typically claims about half of
the power market share and this is the first time gas has pulled
even in years, Sieminski noted.
Much of the session was dominated by petroleum discussion. Sieminski
said it is conceivable that the United States could be exporting
some oil in a few years. The EIA official also talked about natural
gas markets and planned exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Like other government agencies, EIA is coping with budget cuts and
staff issues. Within the next five years it is likely that many of
EIA’s most experienced staff members will resign, Sieminski said.
Jaczko reflects on NRC tenure
While Sieminski is just starting his tenure at EIA, Nuclear
Regulatory Commission (NRC) Chairman Gregory Jaczko was preparing to
leave that organization when he spoke to reporters July 5. Jaczko
said his last day at NRC would be July 6.
Jaczko announced his plans to resign in May. Since then President
Obama nominated and the Senate confirmed geologist and academic
Allison Macfarlane as the new leader of NRC. Jaczko has been on the
commission since 2005 and was named chairman in 2009.
Since then, however, Jaczko, has staked out positions that often put
him at odds with the nuclear power industry and his management style
has sparked rare public criticism from the other four members of the
commission – including his fellow Democrats.
Asked if he would now change anything about his past chilly
relations with the rest of the commissioners, he replied: “Well,
yeah. I would have made them better.” The remark drew laughs.
Jaczko said he has always been passionate about the things he
believes in. At the same time, the outgoing NRC chairman said his
communication style was not always effective and his actions “were
not always popular.”
Although he is leaving NRC more than a year before his term expires,
Jaczko indicated he was happy with the choice of Macfarlane as the
new NRC chair. “I was very comfortable with the name I’d heard as
replacement,” the outgoing chairman said.
The commission must decide how to handle the various recommendations
of a senior NRC staff task force following the Fukushima meltdown in
Japan. The NRC must decide if these are basic safety fundamentals or
items subject to cost-benefit analysis, Jaczko said.
Since the beginning of the year, Jaczko has cast the commission’s
lone dissenting vote against the first new nuclear power plant
applications in 30 years because of lack of upfront assurances that
the new plants would implement Fukushima-inspired safeguards.
While Jaczko said he had not yet read the English language summary
of a new Japanese report on Fukushima, he agrees with the conclusion
that “group think” should often be challenged when it comes to
nuclear energy.
As to whether there will be additional new nuclear plants approved
in the United States in addition to the ones approved this year in
Georgia and South Carolina, Jaczko said that depends on how
successful groups led by Southern (NYSE: SO) and SCANA (NYSE: SCG)
are in building those plants on time and on budget.
Jaczko said many of the companies that filed nuclear plant
applications in 2007 and 2008, are still pursuing them – albeit on a
go-slow timetable.
As for license renewals, Jaczko said he would like to see a less
narrow, more comprehensive review before plants receive a 20-year
license extension.
Jaczko also said “the jury is still out” on whether existing nuclear
plants should be allowed to run longer than 60 years. Economics
might discourage 60-year-plus operation of a plant with “an older
design” that requires a lot of modification, Jaczko said.
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