Path for Iran nuclear talks choked by tensions
Jul 18 - Associated Press/AP Online
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates - In the span of just a few hours,
announcements bouncing between Tehran and Washington showed the
direction of their showdown: New issues are piling up even as Western
envoys try to find a path to move nuclear talks forward.
In quick succession last week: Iran said it seeks to build a
nuclear-powered submarine, the U.S. unveiled more sanctions and a senior
Iranian military official ramped up denunciations of Middle East nations
trying to topple the Tehran-allied regime in Syria.
The developments taken individually reflect significant trends,
including Iran's split personality between portraying itself as a rising
military power while growing insecure about losing critical regional
influence if President Bashar Assad falls in Damascus. But seen as a
whole, the moves underscore the hardening positions that could hamper
next week's attempt to regain diplomatic traction on negotiations over
Iran's nuclear ambitions.
"There is a lot of background noise with the nuclear talks," said
Sami al-Faraj, director of the Kuwait Center for Strategic Studies. "It
seems to be getting louder."
For the moment, there is no date to resume talks between Iran and
world powers following the last month's session in Moscow. That could
depend on the outcome of discussions next Tuesday between Iran's No. 2
negotiator and the top deputy for the European Union's foreign policy
chief, Catherine Ashton.
At the heart of the talks is how much the West is willing to allow
Iran to enrich uranium, which at low levels creates fuel to power
reactors but can be boosted to weapons grade material. Iran insists it
will never surrender its ability to make nuclear fuel, but says it seeks
reactors only for energy and medical applications.
Iran's declared pursuit of a nuclear sub - although in the early
stages and still possibly out of reach of Iranian engineers - is now a
potential deal-breaker in the haggling over enrichment.
Submarines need nuclear fuel enriched well beyond the 20 percent
level that marks Iran's highest acknowledged output. The issue could
open demands by Iran to push production much closer to warhead levels at
95 percent enrichment - which is certain to stir calls in Israel and
elsewhere to abandon dialogue and look to possible military action.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed Iran for a deadly
blast Wednesday on a bus filled with Israel tourists in Bulgaria, and
promised a tough response.
The proposed sub is part of Iran's strong emphasis in recent years on
boosting naval power. Iran seeks to offset the expanding U.S. Navy
presence in the Gulf and project its own military presence farther
afield by sending warships into the Mediterranean and Indian Ocean.
Iranian commanders this week renewed threats to block the Strait of
Hormuz at the mouth of the Gulf - the route for one-fifth of the world's
oil - in response to tighter Western sanctions. But there has been no
evidence of Iranian ships challenging tankers.
The Pentagon, meanwhile, is boosting its naval forces in the region.
The aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis is now on an accelerated
timetable to return by late summer to ensure that two carriers are in
the area. Another ship, the USS Ponce, has also been deployed to the
Gulf as a floating base for attack forces.
Iran has responded with volleys of tough talk possibly tailored to
counter domestic grumbling about the country's increasing isolation.
"The U.S. aircraft carriers are nothing more than scrap iron for the
Revolutionary Guard," said the corps' deputy commander, Hossein Salami.
"The Guard doesn't fear the greatness of the U.S. aircraft carriers."
On Monday, the conservative Iranian website Mashreghnews.ir said the
country will one day need to churn out enrichment at "50 to 60 percent"
for a future nuclear-powered fleet.
"Iran won't give up its nuclear rights," said a hardline Iranian
parliament member, Mohammed Esmaeili. "At the same time, it won't shun
talks. It will continue negotiations."
And the West will likely keep applying pinpoint sanctions to try to
gain more leverage. British Foreign Secretary William Hague said Tuesday
that sanctions would "intensify" in the coming months if there is no
progress in the talks.
In a rare official acknowledgment of the economic bite, Iran's
parliament speaker Ali Larijani was quoted Tuesday as saying that
sanctions were to blame for 20 percent of the country's economic
problems.
The main blows have been against Iran's critical oil exports,
including a boycott by the 27-nation EU that took effect July 1. The
targets of the latest U.S. sanctions included 11 companies the Treasury
Department claims have links to Iran's defense ministry, the
Revolutionary Guard and other state-backed institutions.
"The economy is a far more immediate and existential issue for the
regime" than internal political opposition, said Meir Javedanfar, an
Iranian-born political analyst based in Israel.
He speculated that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may
want to keep nuclear negotiations on track in fear that escalating
tensions with the West would "worsen his regime's economic woes."
There's also the uncertainties over Syria and whether Iran may one
day face a post-Assad leadership indebted to Iran's Gulf Arab rivals,
such as Saudi Arabia, which have become leading backers of the Syrian
rebels.
On Wednesday, a bomb ripped through a high-level security meeting in
Damascus, killing three top regime officials in the harshest blow to
Syria's ruling family dynasty and the rebels' boldest attack in the
country's civil war.
The war has pried open rifts among Iranian officials about the wisdom
of sticking by Assad amid mounting international outrage at the
bloodshed. Some diplomats have been quoted as questioning Iran's
continued backing for a Syrian regime that could face war crimes
accusations in the future.
Others have pushed back harder against Assad's opponents.
"It is the duty of Syria's Muslim neighbors to refrain from backing
the `terrorists,'" Iran's armed forces chief of staff, Gen. Hassan
Firouzabadi, was quoted as saying in a message to Turkey and Jordan to
block rebel movements.
The West has tried to keep regional issues out of the nuclear talks
agenda, but the pressures are certain to shape Iran's strategies if the
negotiations move forward, experts say.
Iran "had to weather quite a lot in the past," said Mouin Rabbani, a
Jordan-based contributing editor to the journal Middle East Report.
"It's used to playing an increasing small number of cards to their
maximum advantage."
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Associated Press writers Ali Akbar Dareini in Tehran, Iran, and Dale
Gavlak in Amman, Jordan, contributed to this report.
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