Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Jul 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 1515
(S17E04) produced an impulsive M5/2b flare at 02/1052Z associated
with a Type II radio sweep (estimated shock speed 1063 km/s), a 380
sfu Tenflare, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) with most of the
mass directed southward, out of the ecliptic plane. It also produced
an impulsive M3/2b flare at 02/2007Z associated with a 190 sfu
Tenflare. This region remained large and magnetically complex
(beta-gamma-delta). Region 1513 (N16W09) produced an impulsive M1/1n
flare at 02/0035Z as well as frequent B- and C-class flares. Gradual
spot growth was noted in its intermediate and trailer portions and
it retained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. No new regions
were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (03 - 05 July) with M-class flares
expected from Regions 1513 and 1515.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels with
minor to major storm levels detected at high latitudes. This
activity was associated with a persistent coronal hole high-speed
stream (CH HSS). ACE data indicated solar wind speeds in the 580 -
722 km/s range with no discernible trend. IMF Bz was variable and
ranged from +6 nT to -5 nT. Today's observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux
(166 sfu) was flare-enhanced due to the M3/2b at 02/2007Z. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (03 July)
as CH HSS effects persist. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet
to unsettled levels during days 2 - 3 (04 - 05 July) as CH HSS
effects gradually subside. The CME associated with today's M5/2b
flare is not expected to disturb the field during the forecast
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jul 166
Predicted   03 Jul-05 Jul  140/145/145
90 Day Mean        02 Jul 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul  020/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul  020/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  013/015-007/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/25/25