Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Jul 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1515 (S15W89) produced
the largest event of the period, a C7/Sf at 09/0830Z.  Region 1520
(S17E33) continued its growth phase in area coverage, spot count and
magnetic complexity, but remained relatively quiet through the
period.  New Region 1521 (S22E21) was numbered as a D-type group.  A
large filament eruption was observed in the SW quadrant at about
09/0930Z.  At the time of its eruption, the 23 degree long filament
was centered near S35W32.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
during the previous 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class events for the next three days
(10 - 12 July).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels with
high latitude major storm intervals.  This activity was most likely
a result of CME effects from the 04 July M1 event.  ACE solar data
indicated wind velocities ranged between 400 to 450 km/s.  The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was generally south
throughout the period ranging between -5 to -10 nT from about
09/0600Z through the end of the period.  Interplanetary field
strength was at 10 to 12 nT through most of the period.  A greater
than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit began at 09/0130Z,
reached a maximum of 19 pfu at 09/0430Z and ended at 09/1445Z.  This
weak SEP event was most likely associated with the 08 July M6/1n
flare from Region 1515.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods on day one (10 July) due to possible weak effects
from the 06 July CME.  A return to mostly quiet conditions is
expected for days two and three (11 - 12 July).
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jul 174
Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul  165/160/155
90 Day Mean        09 Jul 125
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  015/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul  018/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  013/015-007/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/10/05