US net oil import dependence drops another notch


The net oil import dependence of the US shows no signs of stabilizing. It keeps sinking.

The Energy Information Administration's April figures, released June 28, recorded the fact that US net import dependence measured in barrels per day reached another recent low. We'll define "recent" as the time period that began with the August 2006 net imports of just over 13.4 million b/d, the highest ever.

In April, that figure was down to 7.37 million b/d. That's a decline of about 45%. Here's another figure: during August 2006, US import dependence was 62.7%. You get that figure by looking at the net imports and dividing that by a category the EIA calls total crude oil and petroleum product supplied. In April, that figure was just slightly more than 40%. (It's been a little less than 40% in two recent months, so that's not a new low.)

When you get a report as big as the EIA monthly, and you combine that with the fact that the US supply situation is undergoing sweeping changes, it's a document that yields all sorts of interesting numerical tidbits. For example:

--When gasoline prices were climbing toward the $4/gal level in the US just a few months ago--and crossed that barrier in a few places--it appeared the growing level of US product exports could become a political issue. As prices have receded, so has the focus on exports, but certainly not because the exports have declined with the price. On the contrary, the April report showed that net product exports of 1.189 million b/d were the second-highest ever, exceeded only by last December's 1.255 million b/d.

--Leading that product export surge, not surprisingly, was a new record for distillate net exports, at 980,000 b/d a bit more than the previous record set earlier this year of 954,000 b/d. Total distillate exports were 1.078 million b/d, the second highest ever. One aspect of the distillate exports that is notable: a significant jump in net exports of diesel fuel of 500 to 2,000 ppm. Those net exports of 246,000 b/d were far and away the most ever, by more than 100,000 b/d. One question: with almost no use for higher sulfur distillate in the home market, will US refiners stop making it (and this surge was just a dumping of unneeded inventory), or will making and shipping high sulfur distillate elsewhere provide a new opportunity for them? (As an example of how markets work in mysterious ways, the US imported 380,000 b/d of high sulfur distillate in April. It's a huge drop from previous months, but even in a low-sulfur mandated market, some of it managed to find a home.)

--This was to be expected, but US net exports of NGLs are starting to become significant. Given the surge in output on the back of natural gas shale production, it's not surprising. And so the US recorded net exports of LPGs--the EIA doesn't refer to them as NGLs--of 92,000 b/d in April, again, a record by a few thousand barrels. But the US was a consistent (albeit small) net importer of LPGs right up until early last year, and the shift to a being a net exporter is probably long-term.

--The loss of US markets for some large crude exporters is significant. A comparison of the three-year average between 2004 and 2006, and the average for the 12 months leading up to April show some remarkable declines. For example, Nigeria went to 642,000 b/d from 1.14 million b/d in exports to the US. Algeria declined to 289,000 b/d from 528,000 b/d, and Angola dropped to 327,000 b/d from 457,000 b/d. Kuwait, surprisingly, increased exports to 257,000 b/d from 225,000 b/d. Saudi Arabia took a relatively small hit, down to 1.309 million b/d from 1.518 million b/d, a trend that may reverse once the Saudi Aramco/Shell-owned expanded Motiva refinery in Port Arthur, Texas shakes off corrosion and other problems and begins full operations of its expanded capacity.

Meanwhile, US imports of Canadian crude were 2.931 million b/d for the second consecutive month, and that's just a little less than the more than 3 million b/d recorded in the first two months of this year, the first time that level had ever been exceeded.

 

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