Analysis of US EIA crude oil dataNew York - May 16, 2012U.S. crude oil stocks climbed 2.128 million barrels last week, continuing an upward trend largely in place since mid-December, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed Wednesday. At 381.644 million barrels the week ending May 11, U.S. crude oil stocks were up 58.063 million barrels since the week ending December 16 and 7.84% greater than the five-year average. U.S. crude stocks typically climb this time of year, but are approaching the all-time high 391.907 million-barrel level set in July 1990, primarily because of builds in the Midwest. Midwest crude stocks at 107.114 million barrels last week were 26.30% more than the five-year high and just 111,000 barrels short of the all-time high set on April 1, 2011. Within the Midwest, crude stocks at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures contract delivery hub of Cushing, Oklahoma climbed one million barrels last week to a new all-time high of 45.127 million barrels. Cushing inventories have been building ahead of the reversal of the Enbridge/Enterprise Seaway pipeline, which is due on May 17 to begin shipping crude from Cushing to Freeport, Texas. The crude injected into Seaway will take about 12 days to reach the U.S. Gulf Coast, based on the initial capacity of 150,000 barrels per day (b/d), according to Rick Rainey, spokesman for co-owner Enterprise Products Partners, on Monday. The transit time should speed up to about five days once capacity reaches 400,000 b/d, which is expected by early 2013, he said. An increase in U.S. production has fed into this year's crude surplus. On a four-week average, production at 6.13 million b/d last week was up 515,000 b/d year-on-year. CRUDE RUNS HIGHER That increase in local production has cut into imports, which at 8.859 million b/d last week on a four-week moving average, were down just 60,000 b/d year-on-year. But they were 866,000 b/d less than the five-year average. Meanwhile, U.S. refiners increased crude runs last week by 302,000 b/d to 15.044 million b/d, led by a 321,000 b/d jump in U.S. Gulf Coast runs to 7.869 million b/d. Assuming refiners continue to up runs, U.S. crude stocks are expected to begin to draw soon. For instance, last year inventories began falling at the beginning of June, lagging an upward trend in refinery operations by about four weeks. Total U.S. gasoline stocks declined by 2.797 million barrels to 204.311 million barrels the week ending May 11, with declines seen across all U.S. regions. The U.S. Midwest led in the draw downs regionally, down 1.246 million barrels. But declines of 511,000 barrels on the U.S. Gulf Coast and 860,000 barrels on the U.S. West Coast were substantial. The U.S. Atlantic Coast saw a 49,000-barrel draw in gasoline stocks. West Coast gasoline inventories have been falling steadily since early April. At 25.274 million barrels the week ending May 11, stocks were down 860,000 barrels on the week and down 5.667 million barrels from April 6, the EIA data showed. That left inventories 14.57% less than the five-year average. In contrast, gasoline stocks on the Atlantic Coast at 53.68 million barrels last week, while down 10.4 million barrels since mid-February, were only 1.78% less than the five-year average. DISTILLATES DOWN U.S. implied* gasoline demand at 8.971 million b/d was 107,000 b/d higher on the week, and up for the third week in a row. On a four-week moving average, implied demand at 8.756 million b/d was down just 0.13% year-on-year, once the prior year's implied demand figures are adjusted lower to take into account higher exports. Implied demand has picked up since mid-March, when the four-week moving average was running at a 6.08% deficit year-on-year. U.S. imports of gasoline were up 68,000 b/d, with a 96,000 b/d increase seen on the Atlantic Coast. This was somewhat offset by a 27,000 b/d decrease on the West Coast, with imports of gasoline into other regions remaining largely flat. The bulk of Atlantic Coast gasoline imports came in the form of a 94,000-barrel-per-day increase in blending components, as opposed to finished gasoline. Total U.S. distillate stocks were down 969,000 barrels to 119.801 million barrels, with the bulk of the decrease coming from a 754,000-barrel draw in the Midwest and a 799,000-barrel draw on the West Coast. These draws were tempered somewhat by a 916,000-barrel distillate build on the U.S. Gulf Coast. * Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the U.S. distribution system, not actual end consumption. # # # About Platts: Founded in 1909, Platts is a leading global provider of energy, petrochemicals and metals information and a premier source of benchmark prices for those markets. Platts' news, pricing, analytics, commentary and conferences help customers make better-informed trading and business decisions and help the markets operate with greater transparency and efficiency. Customers in 150 countries benefit from Platts’ coverage of the oil, petrochemicals, natural gas, electricity,coal, nuclear power, shipping, and metals markets. A division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Platts has approximately 900 employees in more than 15 offices worldwide. 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