Is 80 Percent Renewables by 2050 Wishful Thinking?

Bill Opalka | Jun 20, 2012

How much renewable energy can the United States accommodate over the coming decades is the subject of a new report published by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).

The Renewable Electricity Futures Study (RE Futures) is an initial investigation of the extent to which renewable energy supply can meet the electricity demands of the continental United States. This study explores the implications and challenges of very high renewable electricity generation levels—from 30% up to 90%, focusing on 80%, of all U.S. electricity generation from renewable technologies—in 2050.

At such high levels of renewable electricity generation, the unique characteristics of some renewable resources, specifically geographical distribution and variability and uncertainty in output, pose challenges to the operability of the nation's electric system.

Renewable electricity generation from technologies that are commercially available today, in combination with a more flexible electric system, is more than adequate to supply 80% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2050 while meeting electricity demand on an hourly basis in every region of the country.
Increased electric system flexibility, needed to enable electricity supply-demand balance with high levels of renewable generation, can come from a portfolio of supply- and demand-side options, including flexible conventional generation, grid storage, new transmission, more responsive loads, and changes in power system operations.

The abundance and diversity of U.S. renewable energy resources can support multiple combinations of renewable technologies that result in deep reductions in electric sector greenhouse gas emissions and water use.

The direct incremental cost associated with high renewable generation is comparable to published cost estimates of other clean energy scenarios. Improvement in the cost and performance of renewable technologies is the most impactful lever for reducing this incremental cost.
 
In recent years, variable renewable electricity generation capacity in the United States has increased considerably. Wind capacity, for example, has increased from 2.6 GW in 2000 to 40 GW in 2010, while solar capacity has also begun to grow rapidly.

Overall, renewable energy contributed about 10% of total power-sector U.S. electricity supply in 2010 (6.4% from hydropower, 2.4% from wind energy, 0.7% from biopower, 0.4% from geothermal energy, and 0.05% from solar energy).

The study explores electricity grid integration using models with unprecedented geographic and time resolution for the continental United States to assess whether the U.S. power system can supply electricity to meet customer demand on an hourly basis with high levels of renewable electricity, including variable wind and solar generation.

Comments:

Of course it's wishful...

... But not impossible.. in fact we can probably beat it.

When we look at the available renewable answers, they are only part of the answer, especially when we're talking about nearly 40 years from now.  The current crop of resources will get better, more efficient, and cheaper, and innovations will come along to make 80% seem like a low target for 2050.  

Take Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) for example.  It creates an endless flow of power from the temperature difference in shallow and deep water.  It's proven, zero emission, affordable, and happening today around the world in tropical locations.  OTEC is only in the infant stages, in the next 10 years it will be a major energy answer for millions of people, and by 2050, there will be dozens more reliable, renewable answers to make 80% to standard around the world.

To see how OTEC works, and why so many countries are so excited about it, visit The On Project.

http://www.theonproject.org/otec/?utm_source=energybiz&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=mscomment

Reports like this extrapolate from known sources, since they cannot speculate on innovation.  Futura Solar has been innovating, so pardon if the goal posts are moved.

PV has the largest lobby, along with wind.  Solar water and daylighting are largely ignored.  BIPV is lumped in with PV as is PV/Thermal.  Minor changes in efficiency to PV crowd the headlines. despite the effect of wiring into flourescent lighting.

Futura Solar has combined several technologies into a Sawtooth roofing system for low profile commercial buildings, which have significant collector area.  PPA's, south walls and skylighting domes were the initial effort to harness that resource.  Combining the array into the roof, with multiple solar benefits whose Utility is routinely delivered to the business beneath the roof is the next.  Extrapolate that.

It's certainly doable, the only thing missing is a plan and the will - other than that, it's a done deal.

The carbon / global warming argument is a pig.  I'm a true believer and I still think it's a pig.  That said, creating jobs and reducing pollution is the way to market change, however, structural impediments - flaming big ones, would have to be addressed otherwise everyone's pitching a product that no one can buy.

What to fix:

1) Artificially low cost of coal.  Blowing off mountaintops and depleting/ fouling aquifers in the process along with inadedquate coal ash disposal needs to be calculated into the mix.  It's the industry equivalent of an industrious kid making money cutting his neighbors grass when his parents are buying gas for his lawnmower.  True up the cost and make power companies scrub the $%*!  out of their emissions, ship back the ash to depleted coal mines for sequestration and pay the cost of restoring water and mountaintops. But wait, some would say, electricity will be too expensive then.  Really?  Sunlight and wind are free.

2) Break up utiities and the state regulatory bodies.  Pollution and electricity traverses state borders;  put in place a national energy policy with uniform rates in addition to requiring utilities to unbuckle their generation and delivery business while moving them toward a model that rewards efficiency with profits will be a good start.  

Until utilties are required to act like real enterprises - paying their external costs themselves, renewables and the control systems to make them viable won't take off.  Our current system is like an unsupervised college kid smoking pot, eating junk food and neglecting his school work.  Until an intervention occurs, then expect the freshman 20 and the failing grades.

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