How much renewable energy can the United States
accommodate over the coming decades is the subject
of a new report published by the National Renewable
Energy Laboratory (NREL).
The Renewable Electricity Futures Study (RE Futures)
is an initial investigation of the extent to which
renewable energy supply can meet the electricity
demands of the continental United States. This study
explores the implications and challenges of very
high renewable electricity generation levels—from
30% up to 90%, focusing on 80%, of all U.S.
electricity generation from renewable
technologies—in 2050.
At such high levels of renewable electricity
generation, the unique characteristics of some
renewable resources, specifically geographical
distribution and variability and uncertainty in
output, pose challenges to the operability of the
nation's electric system.
Renewable electricity generation from technologies
that are commercially available today, in
combination with a more flexible electric system, is
more than adequate to supply 80% of total U.S.
electricity generation in 2050 while meeting
electricity demand on an hourly basis in every
region of the country.
Increased electric system flexibility, needed to
enable electricity supply-demand balance with high
levels of renewable generation, can come from a
portfolio of supply- and demand-side options,
including flexible conventional generation, grid
storage, new transmission, more responsive loads,
and changes in power system operations.
The abundance and diversity of U.S. renewable energy
resources can support multiple combinations of
renewable technologies that result in deep
reductions in electric sector greenhouse gas
emissions and water use.
The direct incremental cost associated with high
renewable generation is comparable to published cost
estimates of other clean energy scenarios.
Improvement in the cost and performance of renewable
technologies is the most impactful lever for
reducing this incremental cost.
In recent years, variable renewable electricity
generation capacity in the United States has
increased considerably. Wind capacity, for example,
has increased from 2.6 GW in 2000 to 40 GW in 2010,
while solar capacity has also begun to grow rapidly.
Overall, renewable energy contributed about 10% of
total power-sector U.S. electricity supply in 2010
(6.4% from hydropower, 2.4% from wind energy, 0.7%
from biopower, 0.4% from geothermal energy, and
0.05% from solar energy).
The study explores electricity grid integration
using models with unprecedented geographic and time
resolution for the continental United States to
assess whether the U.S. power system can supply
electricity to meet customer demand on an hourly
basis with high levels of renewable electricity,
including variable wind and solar generation.
Comments:
Of course it's
wishful...
-
... But not impossible.. in fact we can
probably beat it.
When we look at the available renewable
answers, they are only part of the answer,
especially when we're talking about nearly 40
years from now. The current crop of resources
will get better, more efficient, and cheaper,
and innovations will come along to make 80% seem
like a low target for 2050.
Take Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC)
for example. It creates an endless flow of
power from the temperature difference in shallow
and deep water. It's proven, zero emission,
affordable, and happening today around the world
in tropical locations. OTEC is only in the
infant stages, in the next 10 years it will be a
major energy answer for millions of people, and
by 2050, there will be dozens more reliable,
renewable answers to make 80% to standard around
the world.
To see how OTEC works, and why so many
countries are so excited about it, visit The On
Project.
http://www.theonproject.org/otec/?utm_source=energybiz&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=mscomment
Reports like this extrapolate from known
sources, since they cannot speculate on
innovation. Futura Solar has been
innovating, so pardon if the goal posts are
moved.
PV has the largest lobby, along with wind.
Solar water and daylighting are largely ignored.
BIPV is lumped in with PV as is PV/Thermal.
Minor changes in efficiency to PV crowd the
headlines. despite the effect of wiring into
flourescent lighting.
Futura Solar has combined several
technologies into a Sawtooth roofing system for
low profile commercial buildings, which have
significant collector area. PPA's, south
walls and skylighting domes were the initial
effort to harness that resource. Combining
the array into the roof, with multiple solar
benefits whose Utility is routinely delivered to
the business beneath the roof is the next.
Extrapolate that.
It's certainly doable, the only thing missing
is a plan and the will - other than that, it's a
done deal.
The carbon / global warming argument is a
pig. I'm a true believer and I still think it's
a pig. That said, creating jobs and reducing
pollution is the way to market change, however,
structural impediments - flaming big ones, would
have to be addressed otherwise everyone's
pitching a product that no one can buy.
What to fix:
1) Artificially low cost of coal. Blowing
off mountaintops and depleting/ fouling aquifers
in the process along with inadedquate coal ash
disposal needs to be calculated into the mix.
It's the industry equivalent of an industrious
kid making money cutting his neighbors grass
when his parents are buying gas for his
lawnmower. True up the cost and make power
companies scrub the $%*! out of their
emissions, ship back the ash to depleted coal
mines for sequestration and pay the cost of
restoring water and mountaintops. But wait, some
would say, electricity will be too expensive
then. Really? Sunlight and wind are free.
2) Break up utiities and the state regulatory
bodies. Pollution and electricity traverses
state borders; put in place a national energy
policy with uniform rates in addition to
requiring utilities to unbuckle their generation
and delivery business while moving them toward a
model that rewards efficiency with profits will
be a good start.
Until utilties are required to act like real
enterprises - paying their external costs
themselves, renewables and the control systems
to make them viable won't take off. Our current
system is like an unsupervised college kid
smoking pot, eating junk food and neglecting his
school work. Until an intervention occurs, then
expect the freshman 20 and the failing grades.
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