Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Jun 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1496 (N17E17) produced a C1/Sf at 04/0936Z. New Regions 1500
(N09W34), 1501 (N07E15) and 1502 (S17E41) were numbered today. No
Earth-directed CME's were observed during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class events for the next three days
(05-07 June).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24
hours due to effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds remained steady around 600
km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt was stable at
approximately 8 nT. The Bz component of the IMF reached a maximum
deviation of -12 nT between 04/0800 - 1000Z, but varied between -5
to +2 nT for the majority of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active, with a chance for isolated minor
storm periods on day one (05 June), due to continued effects from
the CH HSS. Days two and three (06-07 June) are expected to be
unsettled, with a chance for isolated active periods, as the effects
from the CH HSS begin to subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jun 128
Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun  130/135/135
90 Day Mean        04 Jun 117
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  016/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  014/022-014/018-011/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/55/40