Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Jun 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1507 (S26E17) was the
most active region of the period, producing several C-flares.  The
largest of these was a C1/Sf at 1903Z.  Region 1504 (S17E40) is the
largest group on the disk and managed to produce a C-class flare. 
Regions 1504 and 1507 are both growing steadily.  There were no
Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to range
from low to moderate.  An isolated M-class event is likely with
Regions 1504 and 1507 the most probable source.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was generally quiet to unsettled.  Minor storm
levels were observed at high latitudes during 10/0600Z to 10/0900Z.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (12 June).  An increase
in activity is expected mid-day due to a glancing blow from a CME
observed on 08 June.  Activity is expected to return to quiet
partway through day 2 (13 June) as the effects of the CME subside. 
Activity is expected to remain quiet on day 3 (14 June).
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jun 134
Predicted   12 Jun-14 Jun  135/135/130
90 Day Mean        11 Jun 117
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun  007/008-006/008-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/05
Minor storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05