Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1504 (S15W53) produced
a few low level C-flares, the largest of which was a C1/Sf at
17/2139Z.  Region 1504 decreased in total area and ended the day at
690 millionths.  Regions 1505 (S13W53) and Region 1506 (N08W42)
showed signs of decay.  There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed
during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a chance of isolated M-class activity from Region 1504.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. 
Active levels were reached at the beginning of the period from
17/2100Z to 18/0300Z.  Minor storm levels were reached from 18/0300Z
to 18/0600Z.  This elevated activity was due to persistent effects
from the 13 and 14 June CMEs.   The remainder of the period showed a
steady decline to mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (19 June). Quiet levels
are expected on 20 - 21 June.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jun 118
Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun  115/110/095
90 Day Mean        18 Jun 119
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  036/055
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  008/010-006/006-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           30/15/10
Major-severe storm    25/05/05