Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Jun 21 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 1504 (S15W89)
produced a long duration B7 flare at 21/1814Z which was the largest
event of the period.  There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed
during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly very low for the next three days.  There is a chance
for an isolated C-class flare from Region 1504 on day 1 (22 June) as
it approaches the west limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 22-24 June.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jun 098
Predicted   22 Jun-24 Jun  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        21 Jun 119
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05