Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Jun 25 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low. New Region 1512
(S16E39, Dao/beta) emerged early on 25 June and gradually grew
during the remainder of the period. It produced a C1/Sf flare at
25/2059Z. A long-duration B7 flare occurred at 25/1848Z from a
region beyond the southeast limb. No Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections were observed during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low during the period (26 - 28 June) with a chance for a C-class
flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet during the period (26 - 28 June) with a chance
for unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jun 089
Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun  090/095/100
90 Day Mean        25 Jun 118
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  005/005-005/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For June 18-24

A category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm occurred on 18 June due to effects from a coronal mass ejection.

Outlook For June 25-July 1

No space weather storms are expected.

Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA,
USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services 
and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More 
information is available at SWPC's Web site http://swpc.noaa.gov