Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 May 24 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A few nominal C-class flares
were observed during the period. New Region 1490 (S12E58) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the period (25-27 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet, with the exception of an
isolated unsettled period overnight between 24/03-06Z. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (25 May). A weak enhancement in
activity of unsettled to active conditions is possible on day 2 (26
May) as the result of CME effects from the event on 22 May.
Conditions are expected to return to mostly quiet for day 3 (27
May).
III.  Event Probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M    10/10/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 May 116
Predicted   25 May-27 May  115/110/110
90 Day Mean        24 May 116
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  013/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  006/005-007/008-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/20/10