Analysis of US EIA data: US gasoline stocks up despite Sandy's toll on Atlantic Coast

New York - November 7, 2012

U.S. gasoline stocks rose 2.875 million barrels to 202.377 million barrels for the reporting week ended November 2, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed Wednesday.

The rise was attributable to a 4.619-million-barrel increase in U.S. Gulf Coast gasoline stocks, which rose to 75.095 million barrels. This made up for a sharp decline in U.S. Atlantic Coast (USAC) gasoline stocks, which fell 1.249 million barrels to 46.643 million barrels in the week ending November 2.

Analysts expected total U.S. gasoline stocks to decline by one million barrels in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, which has wreaked havoc on the U.S. Atlantic Coast and disrupted crucial oil product infrastructure including flooded product terminals and closed refineries and pipelines.

Data for the week ending November 2 reflected about a 92% response rate due to Sandy-related information-gathering difficulties, according to James Beck, lead analyst with the EIA weekly petroleum supply team. EIA data typically reflects responses from around 98% of all companies surveyed, Beck said.

The U.S. Atlantic Coast would likely account for much of the gap in data, but since crude and product stocks and refinery utilization were largely stable ahead of the storm, EIA was able to impute, or infer, much of the missing data, Beck said.

As of November 2, many New York-region terminals were still closed due to the storm, including Citgo in Linden, New Jersey; Hess in Bayonne, Newark, and Perth Amboy, New Jersey; and Motiva in Brooklyn and Long Island, New York.

Colonial Pipeline's Line 3 was down as well. The Greensboro, North Carolina, to Linden, New Jersey, Line 3 delivers about 700,000 barrels per day (b/d) into Linden when operating normally.

Parts of the Buckeye Pipeline were also down. Buckeye's Linden terminal supplies about 500,000 b/d of diesel, gasoline and jet into the New York Harbor market.

Seven refineries were also affected by the storm to varying degrees, according to analysts. EIA data showed USAC refinery utilization fell 22.5 percentage points to 58.5% of capacity last in the week ending November 2, as gross crude oil inputs to refineries fell 290,000 b/d to 757,000 b/d.

This drop in refinery utilization helped to push total U.S. refinery utilization 2.3 percentage points lower at 85.4% of capacity, as total gross crude oil inputs to U.S. refiners fell 399,000 b/d to 14.848 million b/d.

Analysts expected rates to fall 1.5 percentage points.

U.S. CRUDE STOCKS RISE 1.766 MILLION BARRELS

Sandy's impact was likely felt in U.S. total gasoline demand, which fell 537,000 b/d to 8.307 million b/d.

According to the EIA's most recent monthly data, USAC implied finished gasoline demand, or product supplied, averaged 3.216 million b/d in August, roughly 35% of the 9.135 million b/d U.S. total.

Meanwhile, USAC crude oil stocks fell 460,000 barrels to 10.088 million barrels, but imports rose 198,000 b/d to 1.066 million b/d.

Although USAC ports and waterways were closed most of the week, this data could reflect imports later in the week, and the region accounts for more than just areas affected by the storm.

Total U.S. commercial crude stocks rose 1.766 million barrels to 374.847 million barrels in the week ending November 2, EIA data showed, slightly higher than analysts expected.

Analysts polled Monday by Platts expected U.S. commercial crude oil stocks to rise by one million barrels.

Builds were seen in the Gulf Coast, the West Coast and the Midwest. Gulf Coast crude stocks rose 807,000 barrels to 183.939 million barrels; West Coast stocks rose 805,000 barrels to 56.117 million barrels; and Midwest stocks rose 392,000 barrels to 106.288 million barrels despite a 428,000-barrel decline in Cushing, Oklahoma, stocks, which fell to 42.966 million barrels.

Cushing is the delivery point for the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude futures contract.

U.S. distillate stocks rose 131,000 barrels to 118.056 million barrels. Analysts expected U.S. distillate stocks to drop by 2 million barrels.

Central Atlantic ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) stocks fell 1.007 million barrels to 7.489 million barrels. However, heating oil stocks rose 1.193 million barrels to 12.772 million barrels.

A 1.702-million-barrel increase in Midwest distillate stocks offset a 1.183-million-barrel decline in Gulf Coast distillates, both largely a product of changes in ULSD stocks.

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