Climate change triggering national security threats
Extreme weather like Hurricane Sandy will continue to be a political
disruption, report says. | Reuters
By ALEX
GUILLEN | 11/12/12 4:36 AM EST
Climate change will likely lead to more frequent extreme weather events
as well as droughts and floods, triggering serious social and political
disruption that poses a potential threat to U.S. national security, a
National
Research Council report shows.
“National security decision makers do not like surprises and expect the
intelligence community to provide sufficient warning to make it possible
to avoid, ameliorate or alter the undesired consequences of emerging
developments,” says the report, released Friday. “Fundamental knowledge
of climate dynamics indicates that many types of extreme climate events
are likely to become more frequent, even though we do not know enough to
predict which extreme events will occur where or when.”
Whether a specific event can be attributed to
human-caused climate change or natural variations is irrelevant from
a national security standpoint, it says. What matters is that those
events are becoming more common, largely because of human activity’s
contributions to climate change.
Though unpredictable weather events are increasingly damaging and
could ultimately prove a security risk by requiring international
response efforts, the report is more concerned with long-term
disruptions to critical resources and supply chains.
The oil trade provides an example of a global market that is
heavily integrated and could be disrupted easily by climate change
events.
“Tropical storms and the increased storm surges that result from
sea-level rise and, in some cases, land subsidence can disrupt
production, refining and transport of petroleum,” the report says.
“In addition, because offshore oil and gas platforms are generally
not designed to accommodate a permanent rise in mean sea level,
climate-related sea-level rise would disrupt production.”
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 and Gustav and Ike in 2008
caused global oil spikes after disrupting production, refining and
transportation, the report notes.
The report, conducted at the request of the U.S. intelligence
community, was set to be released earlier, but it was delayed by
Hurricane Sandy.
The U.S intelligence community should support research efforts
taking place at agencies across the government that would help
project more accurate climate forecasts, particularly for areas of
vulnerability and adaptation methods.
National security analysis will have to draw on climate science,
political concerns and social science.
“An important need is to integrate the social science of natural
disasters and disaster response with other forms of analysis,” the
report says.
“This body of knowledge is particularly important for assessing
the security consequences of climate change because disruptive
climate events will typically be perceived and responded to as
natural disasters.”
The U.S. needs to set up a “whole-of-government strategy for
monitoring threats connected to climate change,” the report
concludes.
Meanwhile, the intelligence community itself should create
“stress tests” to evaluate certain countries or supply chains for
managing disruptive climate change-related events.
“The intelligence community presumably already uses an analogous
process to consider the ability of foreign governments and societies
to withstand various kinds of social and political stresses,” the
report says. “The results of stress tests would inform national
security decision makers about places that are at risk of becoming
security concerns as a result of climate events and could be used by
the U.S. government or international aid agencies to target
high-risk places for efforts to reduce susceptibilities or to
improve coping, response and recovery capacities.”
Read more:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83695.html#ixzz2CiX38gLj
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