MEXICO CITY (AP) -- A study released
Wednesday by a respected Mexican think tank asserts that
proposals to legalize the recreational use of marijuana in
Colorado, Oregon and Washington could cut Mexican drug
cartels' earnings from traffic to the U.S. by as much as 30
percent.
Opponents questioned some of the
study's assumptions, saying the proposals could also offer
new opportunities for cartels to operate inside the U.S. and
replace any profit lost to a drop in international
smuggling.
The ballot measures to be decided on
Nov. 6 would allow adults to possess small amounts of pot
under a regimen of state regulation and taxation. Polls have
shown tight races in Washington and Colorado, with
Washington's measure appearing to have the best chance of
passing. Oregon's measure, which would impose the fewest
regulations, does not appear likely to pass.
The study by the Mexican
Competitiveness Institute, "If Our Neighbors Legalize,"
assumes that legalization in any state would allow growers
there to produce marijuana relatively cheaply and create an
illicit flow to other states, where the drug could be made
available at cheaper prices and higher quality than Mexican
marijuana smuggled across the international border.
The report, based on previous studies
by U.S. experts including those at the RAND Corporation,
assumes that Mexican cartels earn more than $6 billion a
year from drug smuggling to the U.S.
It calculates the hypothetical,
post-legalization price of marijuana produced in Oregon,
Washington and Colorado and sold within those states and
smuggled to other states. It then assumes that purchasers
around the U.S. will choose domestic marijuana when it is
sold cheaper than the current price of Mexican marijuana.
That choice will lead to a loss of $1.425 billion to the
cartels if Colorado legalizes, $1.372 billion if Washington
approves the ballot measure, and $1.839 billion if Oregon
votes yes, the study says.
It only looks at the effects of
legalization in individual states, and does not calculate
what would happen if more than one legalized marijuana.
Opponents of the ballot measures said
the study bolsters one of their principal objections, that
it will turn any state with legal marijuana into a producer
for the rest of the country.
They said, however, that they did not
believe that production will rob the cartels of significant
profits, saying instead that they thought Mexican drug lords
would instead try to participate in legal production inside
the U.S.
"If I were a cartel member and I knew
Colorado and Washington had it legal, I'd get a couple front
people and do my business out of those states. Why would I
not?" said Thomas J. Gorman, head of the Rocky Mountain
High-Intensity Drug Trafficking Area, a government agency
that coordinates anti-drug efforts by local, state and
federal agencies in four Western states.
The Mexican government has said that
drug legalization in some U.S. states could make it harder
to prosecute growers and dealers in Mexico, because they
would be producing a product potentially destined for a
place where it is legal.
Alejandro Hope, an author of the study
and a former high-ranking officer in Mexico's domestic
intelligence service, acknowledged that the study made a
series of assumptions that may not be prove to be true,
including the assumption that the U.S. federal government
would not aggressively investigate and prosecute movement of
marijuana out of a state where it's legal.
A post-legalization federal crackdown
could make domestically grown marijuana uncompetitive with
Mexican pot in many states, he said, meaning cartels would
see less of a cut in profits.
"Diversion is a problem we'll continue
to have to monitor," said Alison Holcomb, campaign manager
with New Approach Washington, the group pushing Washington
state's legalization measure. "But the question is to the
extent that is happening, is it better that the money is
going to licensed, regulated businesses instead of going to
Mexico?"
A RAND study of a proposal to legalize
marijuana in California in 2010 asserted that could cut
cartel drug income by 20 percent.
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Wyatt contributed from Denver.