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Source: IMF (click to enlarge) |
These projections are driven by IMF's economic model which
has the Eurozone recession probability at above 80%.
IMF: - The IMF staff’s Global Projection Model (GPM) uses an
entirely different methodology to gauge risk but confirms
that risks for recession in advanced economies (entailing a
serious slowdown in emerging market and developing
economies) are alarmingly high. For 2013, the GPM estimates
suggest that recession probabilities are about 15 percent in
the United States, above 25 percent in Japan, and above 80
percent in the euro area.
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Source: IMF |
Of course as discussed back in May (
see
post), the PMI numbers have been pointing to this for some
time now. But the IMF is working with Q2-2012 numbers - so the
report has a bit of lag in it.