Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Oct 08 2231 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. A M2 x-ray event occurred
at 08/1117Z from a region that has not yet rotated around the east
limb. Two CMEs were observed by LASCO C2/C3 coming off the east limb
early in the period, however neither are expected to be
geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low on day 1 (9 October). Activity is forecast to increase to
low on day 2 (10 October) and low with the a chance for moderate
levels on day 3 (11 October) as the new region emerges around the
east limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field began the period at unsettled levels before the
arrival of the CME from 05 October around 08/0445Z. At that time, a
transient passage was observed at ACE and was then followed by a
subsequent sudden impulse (21nT at Boulder) to Earth's magnetic
field at 08/0515Z. Conditions increased to active levels for a sole
period, before major storm levels began and lasted for two periods
(06-12Z). The remainder of the day saw a recovery back to unsettled
and active levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be at minor storm levels (G1) on day 1 (09 October) as
CME effects continue. Days 2 and 3 (10-11 October) are forecast to
be quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active levels
persisting, due to a coronal hole that is expected to move into a
potentially geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M    05/10/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Oct 103
Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        08 Oct 119
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct  024/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  017/020-007/012-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    35/25/15

Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Oct 08 0515 UTC
Deviation: 21 nT
Station: BOU

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For October 1-7

G3 (Strong), and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels were observed on 01 October.

Outlook For October 8-14

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected late on 08 and early on 09 October. There is a chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackout conditions beginning on 12 October.

Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA,
USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services
and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More
information is available at SWPC's Web site http://swpc.noaa.gov

Radio Events Observed 08 Oct 2012
A. 245 MHz Bursts
No 245 MHz Burst Observed.
B. 245 MHz Noise Storms
Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak
2214 2328 110 2232

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2012 Oct 09 1015 UTC
Station: GOES13