Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Oct 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1589 (N12E49) was
responsible for the largest flare of the period; a C4 x-ray flare at
11/0804Z.  Region 1589 is currently the most complex region with a
Beta-Gamma magnetic classification.  New Region 1590 (S29E59)
rotated onto the southeast limb and was numbered today.  No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class activity for the forecast period
(12-14 October).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Solar wind speed, measured at the
ACE spacecraft, was slightly elevated between approximately 440 to
500 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days 1-2 (12-13 October).  On day 3
(14 October) a coronal hole high speed stream is expected to move
into geoeffective position causing quiet to unsettled conditions
with a chance for active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Oct 117
Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct  115/115/120
90 Day Mean        11 Oct 118
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  006/005-006/005-009/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/25
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/30
Major-severe storm    05/05/30