Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Oct 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. There were several C-class
events during the last 24 hours. The largest of these was a
long-duration C4 at 1542Z from newly numbered Region 1593 (N17E78).
Region 1593 was the dominant producer of C-class level activity
although Region 1591 (N07E32) also contributed. Region 1591 showed a
slight growth trend during the period. New Region 1594 (S26E61) was
numbered today and is a small, simple bipolar region. The other
numbered regions on the disk were stable or decaying.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class event from either Region 1591
or Region 1593.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The solar wind velocity at the ACE spacecraft showed a steady
downward trend from initial values around 495 km/s to end-of-day
values near 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Oct 137
Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct  140/145/145
90 Day Mean        15 Oct 117
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  020/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  007/008-007/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05