Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Oct 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The x-ray background
remained steady at B4 for the duration of the period.  Newly
numbered Region 1596 (N11E73) is a ~300 millionths E-type group and
is the most prominent region on the disk.  New Region 1597 (S21W30)
emerged as a small bi-polar region.  The other regions on the disk
were stable or decaying.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event during the next
three days (19 - 21 Oct).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.  The solar
wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft gradually increased from
around 500 km/s to the end-of-day value around 600 km/s.  These
signatures are consistent with a high speed stream from a negative
polarity coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet with a chance for an isolated unsettled period
for the next two days (19 - 20 Oct).  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on 21 Oct due to a high speed stream
associated with a negative polarity coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Oct 138
Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct  140/140/140
90 Day Mean        18 Oct 119
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  006/006-006/005-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05