Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2012 Oct 29 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The largest and only
event of the period was a B6 flare at 29/0302Z from Region 1596
(N05W79).  Regions 1601 (S10E11) and 1602 (S17E65) were numbered
today. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the reporting
period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (30 October).  Quiet conditions are
expected again on day 2 (31 October) until the arrival of the CMEs
from 27/28 October, when there is a chance for active conditions
late in the period.  Active conditions are again likely with a
chance for minor storm conditions on day 3 (01 November).
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Oct 108
Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        29 Oct 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  006/005-010/012-016/022
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/25/45
Minor storm           01/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           10/20/30
Major-severe storm    05/35/60